ANN ARBOR, Michigan— Tuesday takes place, in this state of the “belt of the rust,” a democratic primary with the all-purpose for Bernie Sanders. The latest polls all put Joe Biden in the lead.
Michigan
It remains to allocate 62% of the delegates who will nominate the Democratic candidate for the presidential election in November. Still, the primary scheduled for Tuesday, March 10, in Michigan, already looks like a go-all for Bernie Sanders. Slightly outdistanced for the moment by Joe Biden in a number of delegates, the senator from Vermont must prevail in this state of the “rust belt” to keep his chances.
By beating the favorite Hillary Clinton in 2016, Bernie Sanders had managed to relaunch her campaign. This year again, after a Super Tuesday dominated by the former vice-president of Barack Obama, the senator is not entitled to defeat. Among the other states which will vote on Tuesday, two have changed their method of designation by replacing their caucuses (electoral assemblies) with a classic primary: Washington State and Idaho. Four years ago, helped by his reliable field organization, Bernie Sanders had widened a gap that will be more difficult to reproduce on Tuesday. It is, therefore, even more, dependent on the 125 delegates at stake in Michigan.
Michigan latest polls
The latest polls published Monday, March 9, before the Michigan Democratic primary, all give Joe Biden a clear lead ahead of Bernie Sanders, on his streak of Super Tuesday, March 3. The 2016 precedent, however, calls for caution. The last three polls published at that time had all been extremely favorable to Hillary Clinton. On polling day, however, she was left a short head behind by the Vermont senator (49.8% versus 48.3%).
After Michigan
After Michigan, the nomination contest promises to be difficult for the senator. His nuanced positions on the regime of former Cuban dictator Fidel Castro were very severely received in Florida (219 delegates), who will vote on March 17 and who has a sizeable Cuban diaspora, including in the Democratic ranks.
African American vote
He is currently behind in Illinois (155 delegates), and the African-American vote should also favor Joe Biden in Mississippi on Tuesday, then in Georgia (105 delegates) on March 24, as in Louisiana on April 4. On Monday, the former vice-president campaigned in Michigan, supported by two former African-American nomination contestants: Senator Kamala Harris (California) and her colleague Cory Booker (New Jersey), who brought the same-day support for Joe Biden.
Six states rule on March 10, Big Tuesday, compared to Super Tuesday on March 3, which had seen fourteen states, the American territory of Samoa and Americans abroad.
Twitter applied for the first time its policy of reporting “manipulated” content to a message published on its platform by Donald Trump’s digital communications manager Dan Scavino. The latter edited an extract from a speech by Democratic nomination contestant Joe Biden to make him say only the following sentence: “We can only re-elect Donald Trump,” by deleting the following: “If we are engaging here in this fratricidal battle
Quinnipiac University poll
A majority of Democratic voters (54%) hope Joe Biden will win the Democratic Presidential primary, according to a Quinnipiac University poll published Monday, March 9. A minority (35%) prefer Bernie Sanders. An overwhelming majority (82%) of those surveyed believe that the former vice-president could win against Donald Trump in November, while 61% think so for the Vermont senator. abandonment of Massachusetts
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Senator Elizabeth Warren
The abandonment of Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has untied the tongues of individual members of her team, who have multiplied the attacks on social networks against the former mayor of South Bend, Pete Buttigieg, who renounced the 1st. March. Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg hung on tightly during the debates, the former accusing the latter of seeking donations from wealthy people and the help of political action committees, which she had done during her campaigns for the Senate. The expression of this bitterness was stopped short by a very firm message from the senator’s director of communications, Kristen Orthman.
The Democratic Party
The Democratic National Committee (DNC), the highest body in the Democratic Party, has changed its rules for participation in the next debate on March 15, which could be one of the last. By setting the imperative of having obtained 20% of the 1,871 delegates who will have been allocated on the evening of March 10, the DNC has thus dismissed the representative of Hawaii, who currently has only two delegates. The representative obtains only 1% of the voting intentions in the national poll carried out by Quinnipiac University published Monday.